Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  23.7  23.6  21.5  13.4  19.6  33.9  40.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  26.0  20.0  15.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]          5.1  -3.5  -7.6 -13.4 -25.7 -39.2 -20.6  15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  24.0   4.0  15.0  20.0   8.0 -24.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  62.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  -8.0  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -9.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 EP172026 260926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   150.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   150.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  23.7  23.6  21.5  13.4  19.6  33.9  40.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  62.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  -8.0  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  -9.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.1%        2.6%