Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  24.6  22.3  16.6  15.3  25.0  32.9  40.2  N  N  N  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  22.0  16.0  10.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.5   6.5  -3.4 -10.6 -23.5 -33.3 -10.6  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  15.0   7.0  22.0  68.0 -17.0  18.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -7.0  -9.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0 -10.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 EP172026 260926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.