Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  18.4  14.7  15.9  22.6  33.4  34.9  47.2  N  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  15.0  10.0   7.0   3.0   0.0  18.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         17.4  11.6   4.4  -0.7 -14.2 -18.3  40.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  13.0  -1.0  29.0 -11.0 -24.0  50.0  47.0  U  U  U  N  U VU  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  74.0  66.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.04

 EP172026 260926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.