Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     73.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  17.0  15.2  15.8  28.9  31.6  37.7  57.4  N  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  11.0   7.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  40.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         24.8  19.4  14.3  -0.6   0.8  19.4  55.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   6.0  15.0  18.0  -8.0  -5.0  16.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  68.0  62.0  62.0  55.0  50.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -7.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0 -10.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.56

 EP172026 260927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    112.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.