Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  17.6  21.7  28.4  36.3  46.2  57.5  55.9  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  34.0  14.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         19.3   4.4   5.8   1.7  35.5  60.0  52.3 -14.3 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  -1.0  -9.0 -36.0  41.0  34.0  47.0   8.0  N  U  U VU  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  56.0  54.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -7.0  -9.0  -8.0 -13.0 -19.0  -5.0   0.0  N  F  F  F VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.84

 EP172026 260927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.