Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172026 260927 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 114.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 54.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 21.0 28.5 30.1 41.4 57.6 56.7 56.7 F N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 39.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 6.5 0.8 -3.3 19.4 55.0 55.0 -19.3 -19.3 VU VU VU VU U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 7.0 -26.0 -9.0 46.0 65.0 71.0 71.0 U U VU U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 61.0 58.0 52.0 56.0 64.0 64.0 U U N U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -9.0 -8.0 -8.0 -2.0 14.0 21.0 21.0 F F F F N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.94 EP172026 260927 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 114.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110.