Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  27.7  29.4  38.5  50.6  55.4  55.4  55.4  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  16.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          0.8  -3.3  19.4  28.5  55.0  11.1  11.1  11.1 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0 -20.0  29.0  59.0  44.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  U VU  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -9.0  -8.0 -10.0 -18.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  F  F  F  F VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.98

 EP172026 260928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.