Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172026 260928 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 114.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 30.6 36.4 41.6 60.3 58.6 58.6 58.6 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 2.0 36.0 13.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 1.7 1.7 24.4 59.3 60.0 -14.3 -14.3 -14.3 VU VU VU U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 8.0 31.0 36.0 60.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 U U N N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 56.0 54.0 58.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -6.0 -9.0 0.0 8.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 F F F N U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 EP172026 260928 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 114.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105.