Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  36.0  41.6  48.7  55.6  55.6  55.6  55.6  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0  30.0  34.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          6.7  29.4  64.3  65.0  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  41.0  43.0  39.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.06

 EP172026 260928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    113.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.