Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  46.4  52.3  54.6  54.6  54.6  54.6  54.6  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  41.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.0  65.0  65.0  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1  55.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  20.0  43.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  55.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   3.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        0.6%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 EP172026 260929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  46.4  52.3  54.6  54.6  54.6  54.6  54.6  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  55.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   3.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%       22.0%       11.1%