Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.0  44.9  55.2  60.1  60.1  60.1  60.1  60.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  14.0  14.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  62.9  -0.3  -0.3  -0.3  -0.3  -0.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  60.0  75.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0  U  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  62.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  10.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 EP172026 260929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.