Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.0  57.5  62.6  62.3  62.3  62.3  62.3  62.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0  54.6   9.7   9.7   9.7   9.7   9.7  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  74.0  76.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  59.0  63.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0  27.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  N  N VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.88

 EP172026 260929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.