Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172026 260929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        59.9  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0  61.1  61.1  61.1  61.1  61.1  61.1  61.1  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  N VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 EP172026 260929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.