Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10     98.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  32.3  30.9  32.8  31.7  34.3  30.2  26.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  29.0  38.0  48.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  49.0  89.0 101.0 114.0  77.0  71.0  72.0  U  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  80.0  81.0  77.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       10.0%        6.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.3%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.1%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       11.1%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        4.2%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        9.0%        5.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 EP182026 260927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10     98.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  32.3  30.9  32.8  31.7  34.3  30.2  26.2  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  80.0  81.0  77.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%