Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     98.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  33.2  30.5  29.8  29.4  26.6  27.8  25.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  18.0  19.0  24.0  37.0  44.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0 116.0 118.0 101.0  85.0  83.0  76.0  80.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  82.0  77.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       12.5%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        4.4%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.3%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.6%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       14.8%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        4.5%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        7.1%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.0%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%       15.1%        9.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 EP182026 260927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     98.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  33.2  30.5  29.8  29.4  26.6  27.8  25.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  84.0  82.0  77.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%