Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     98.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  32.5  33.9  39.2  31.8  24.8  20.9  21.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  22.0  28.0  33.0  54.0  43.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 132.0  80.0 130.0  95.0  67.0  86.0 110.0 VF  F  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  86.0  86.0  85.0  84.0  82.0  77.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       11.4%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.8%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%        9.8%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        5.7%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.8%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.4%       15.1%       10.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 EP182026 260927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     98.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  32.5  33.9  39.2  31.8  24.8  20.9  21.8  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  86.0  86.0  85.0  84.0  82.0  77.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%