Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     99.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  32.1  35.4  34.8  25.2  25.4  17.9  20.9  N  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  18.0  26.0  30.0  40.0  51.0  39.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  64.0  83.0  65.0  64.0  69.0 117.0  98.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  84.0  84.0  81.0  81.0  76.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%       11.4%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.9%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.7%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.4%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       10.9%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        6.1%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%       15.6%       10.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 EP182026 260928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     99.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  32.1  35.4  34.8  25.2  25.4  17.9  20.9  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  86.0  84.0  84.0  81.0  81.0  76.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%