Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    100.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  39.8  39.5  36.8  28.3  22.1  24.5  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  27.0  32.0  33.0  57.0  43.0  30.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  87.0  64.0  79.0  55.0  70.0  82.0  97.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  81.0  75.0  72.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  -7.0  -2.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        7.8%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.4%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        7.3%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        4.3%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        9.1%        6.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 EP182026 260928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    100.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.8  39.8  39.5  36.8  28.3  22.1  24.5  21.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  81.0  75.0  72.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  -7.0  -2.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%