Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  36.8  36.1  28.8  27.2  20.8  24.6  22.2  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0  34.0  43.0  52.0  35.0  27.0  28.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  86.0  52.0  50.0  57.0  78.0  86.0  61.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  72.0  67.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0  -4.0  -6.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        1.9%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%       14.0%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        5.4%        4.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        5.4%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        5.2%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       12.0%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        3.3%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        6.8%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        3.2%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%       11.0%        7.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 EP182026 260928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    100.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  36.8  36.1  28.8  27.2  20.8  24.6  22.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  83.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  72.0  67.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0  -4.0  -6.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%