Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  35.1  29.3  28.2  21.5  25.2  25.0  22.5  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  32.0  40.0  54.0  45.0  32.0  27.0  27.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  74.0  65.0  23.0  43.0 128.0  64.0  47.0  F  N  N  U  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  81.0  80.0  77.0  72.0  66.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -6.0  -7.0 -12.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       12.2%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        4.6%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        4.4%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        4.2%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       10.3%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        2.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        6.4%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        8.6%        6.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 EP182026 260928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    101.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  35.1  29.3  28.2  21.5  25.2  25.0  22.5  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  81.0  80.0  77.0  72.0  66.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -6.0  -7.0 -12.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%