Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    102.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  27.4  26.6  25.5  23.6  20.6  20.1  22.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  39.0  54.0  57.0  36.0  27.0  27.0  29.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  76.0  24.0  47.0  74.0  79.0  67.0  24.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  76.0  70.0  63.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -7.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   4.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        2.8%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       21.0%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       10.4%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       10.4%        7.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%        9.9%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%       16.4%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        5.2%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%       11.6%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        4.4%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%       11.5%        8.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 EP182026 260929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    102.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.4  27.4  26.6  25.5  23.6  20.6  20.1  22.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  76.0  70.0  63.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -7.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%