Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    103.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  26.9  26.5  24.6  26.0  25.5  25.6  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  47.0  51.0  43.0  29.0  27.0  30.0  31.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 112.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  44.0  73.0  51.0 102.0  43.0  11.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  73.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0 -10.0 -11.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        3.1%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       21.1%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.5%       10.2%        8.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       10.2%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.5%       10.2%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%       14.4%       11.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%        4.2%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        8.5%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        7.4%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 EP182026 260929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    103.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  26.9  26.5  24.6  26.0  25.5  25.6  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  80.0  79.0  73.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0  -7.0 -10.0 -11.0  -3.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%