Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  23.9  23.7  24.2  23.1  23.9  24.1  15.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  49.0  41.0  33.0  29.0  31.0  32.0  31.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0  97.9  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  82.0  73.0  64.0  63.0  13.0  20.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -5.0 -12.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%        6.1%        7.5%
 25kt / 24h       18.3%       31.5%       24.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%       19.6%       15.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.6%       19.6%       13.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       19.6%       13.6%
 45kt / 36h       14.3%       19.6%       16.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.2%        6.5%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%       10.8%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        3.7%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        7.3%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.00

 EP182026 260929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  23.9  23.7  24.2  23.1  23.9  24.1  15.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  66.0  63.0  64.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -5.0 -12.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%