Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    264.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  23.4  27.3  26.0  26.1  24.0  21.5  13.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  42.0  34.0  28.0  29.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0 104.3  92.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  72.0  45.0  77.0  11.0   3.0  29.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0 -15.0 -12.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F VF  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.7%       11.3%       15.0%
 25kt / 24h       66.9%       39.4%       53.1%
 30kt / 24h       66.9%       29.6%       48.3%
 35kt / 24h       66.9%       29.6%       48.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%       29.6%       14.8%
 45kt / 36h       17.6%       21.3%       19.5%
 55kt / 36h        7.0%        7.9%        7.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%       10.9%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        3.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        7.5%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 EP182026 260929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    264.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  23.4  27.3  26.0  26.1  24.0  21.5  13.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0 -15.0 -12.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U VU  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%