Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 260930 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 106.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.5 29.1 26.0 25.9 23.8 24.3 21.3 19.5 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 35.0 30.0 28.0 30.0 31.0 30.0 26.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0 102.0 92.9 86.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 78.0 69.0 102.0 88.0 -1.0 42.0 -7.0 -26.0 N N F F U N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 78.0 74.0 71.0 68.0 67.0 65.0 63.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -15.0 -7.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 VF VF F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.3% 4.7% 7.0% 25kt / 24h 16.5% 24.7% 20.6% 30kt / 24h 11.3% 15.6% 13.5% 35kt / 24h 8.1% 15.6% 11.8% 40kt / 24h 5.5% 15.6% 10.5% 45kt / 36h 10.0% 11.1% 10.5% 55kt / 36h 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 55kt / 48h 1.7% 6.7% 4.2% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 3.3% 1.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.82 EP182026 260930 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 106.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.5 29.1 26.0 25.9 23.8 24.3 21.3 19.5 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 78.0 74.0 71.0 68.0 67.0 65.0 63.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -15.0 -7.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 VU VU U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%