Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  26.9  25.5  25.8  23.7  23.7  24.2  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  28.0  28.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  23.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0  92.9  84.4  76.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0  91.0 100.0  32.0  22.0  -3.0 -12.0 -21.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  75.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  59.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        6.9%        7.2%
 25kt / 24h       21.6%       37.2%       29.4%
 30kt / 24h       11.1%       29.9%       20.5%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       29.9%       20.4%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       25.5%       14.3%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%       19.4%       15.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.2%        7.0%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        9.9%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.8%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.4%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 EP182026 260930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  26.9  25.5  25.8  23.7  23.7  24.2  19.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  75.0  73.0  70.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  59.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%