Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  26.1  26.6  23.9  24.3  22.6  19.0  13.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  29.0  21.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  87.0  87.0  77.9  77.9  69.4  54.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  87.0  48.0   0.0  -3.0 -26.0 -32.0 -11.0  F  F  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.2%       26.9%       43.1%
 25kt / 24h       58.0%       59.8%       58.9%
 30kt / 24h       58.0%       59.8%       58.9%
 35kt / 24h       58.0%       59.8%       58.9%
 40kt / 24h       29.7%       59.8%       44.7%
 45kt / 36h       27.1%       28.6%       27.9%
 55kt / 36h       11.9%       13.2%       12.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%       11.8%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        4.0%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 EP182026 260930 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  26.1  26.6  23.9  24.3  22.6  19.0  13.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  60.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%