Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 260930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  25.6  25.8  26.7  25.3  23.1  16.9  17.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  27.0  29.0  30.0  31.0  30.0  21.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  87.0  87.0  77.9  69.4  61.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  60.0   6.0  -2.0 -14.0   9.0   6.0   4.0  F  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.9%       13.6%       16.8%
 25kt / 24h       29.6%       38.9%       34.2%
 30kt / 24h       24.3%       35.9%       30.1%
 35kt / 24h       24.3%       35.9%       30.1%
 40kt / 24h       10.2%       35.9%       23.0%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%       11.9%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%        4.0%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        6.5%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 EP182026 260930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    107.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  25.6  25.8  26.7  25.3  23.1  16.9  17.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%