Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  29.0  27.9  27.5  18.8  17.9  15.7  18.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  31.0  30.0  23.0  16.0  12.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.6  52.9  52.9  52.9  44.4  40.5  27.7  22.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  16.0   6.0 -14.0 -21.0  -5.0   0.0  23.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       42.7%       13.0%       27.8%
 25kt / 24h       18.0%       16.2%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h       18.0%       13.1%       15.6%
 35kt / 24h       18.0%       13.1%       15.6%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%        9.2%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP182026 261001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  29.0  27.9  27.5  18.8  17.9  15.7  18.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  47.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%