Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  25.8  26.2  24.3  14.8  15.3  16.3  16.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  30.0  28.0  20.0  15.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.6  47.9  47.9  47.9  39.4  35.5  22.7  14.6  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -24.0 -15.0  11.0 -15.0  -4.0   0.0  -3.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  52.0  49.0  43.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.3%        8.2%       16.7%
 25kt / 24h       10.3%        9.5%        9.9%
 30kt / 24h       10.3%        7.0%        8.7%
 35kt / 24h       10.3%        6.9%        8.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%        4.7%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 EP182026 261002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    109.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  25.8  26.2  24.3  14.8  15.3  16.3  16.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  52.0  49.0  43.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%