Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  29.3  27.1  21.2  16.8  14.6  18.0  18.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  28.0  25.0  22.0  16.0  15.0  14.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.9  47.9  39.4  39.4  35.5  29.8  24.4  14.6  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -19.0  -3.0 -15.0  12.0  -1.0  21.0 -29.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  56.0  58.0  53.0  46.0  45.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.9%        1.6%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        1.8%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.1%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        0.9%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP182026 261002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  29.3  27.1  21.2  16.8  14.6  18.0  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  56.0  58.0  53.0  46.0  45.0  42.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%