Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  17.5  13.5  14.9  13.8  18.0  15.9  18.1  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  23.0  20.0  17.0  15.0  11.0  10.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.4  54.4  54.4  50.5  44.8  32.7  29.6  26.5  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0   4.0 -10.0  -6.0 -10.0  43.0 -10.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        0.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 EP182026 261002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    110.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  17.5  13.5  14.9  13.8  18.0  15.9  18.1  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  50.0  47.0  44.0  N  N  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%