Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261003 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 111.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 73.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.9 15.7 16.5 14.3 16.2 19.5 17.7 19.0 F F F F F N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 12.0 10.0 9.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.4 50.5 50.5 50.5 37.7 32.7 26.5 23.6 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 -25.0 -6.0 12.0 42.0 -5.0 4.0 2.0 U VU U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 56.0 55.0 52.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 N U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 2.9% 1.9% 30kt / 24h 0.9% 2.0% 1.4% 35kt / 24h 0.8% 1.5% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.38 EP182026 261003 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 111.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.