Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    111.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  16.8  15.0  15.5  17.7  15.3  15.9  17.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  18.0  16.0  15.0  12.0  11.0   7.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.4  55.5  55.5  49.8  37.7  34.6  31.5  24.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -32.0   3.0   0.0  12.0  14.0 -20.0  -8.0 -35.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        1.8%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        3.3%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.2%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        1.7%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        1.5%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.32

 EP182026 261003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    111.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.