Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261004 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  22.6  23.1  20.5  19.3  20.5  17.9  18.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0  10.0   8.0   8.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.7  52.7  47.7  47.7  43.0  37.2  31.7  24.3  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  14.0   7.0 -15.0 -16.0   3.0  -9.0 -44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  43.0  43.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        3.1%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        4.2%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.9%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.5%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        1.8%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.62

 EP182026 261004 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    112.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.