Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261004 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 113.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 75.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.3 22.0 20.2 16.8 17.9 14.7 18.0 19.4 N N N F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 10.0 9.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 47.7 42.7 42.7 38.0 32.2 29.4 26.7 24.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 11.0 -9.0 -8.0 9.0 -13.0 -27.0 -33.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 50.0 50.0 48.0 44.0 43.0 43.0 42.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.7% 4.9% 9.3% 25kt / 24h 4.5% 5.8% 5.2% 30kt / 24h 4.5% 4.3% 4.4% 35kt / 24h 3.3% 3.8% 3.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.44 EP182026 261004 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 113.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.