Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261004 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.20 113.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.7 20.0 18.2 19.6 19.7 16.5 18.7 17.5 N N F N N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 9.0 10.0 9.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 32.7 32.7 28.0 25.0 22.2 16.7 16.7 5.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 -7.0 -14.0 4.0 -15.0 -20.0 -27.0 -33.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 49.0 46.0 41.0 42.0 41.0 42.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 16.8% 3.9% 10.3% 25kt / 24h 2.2% 3.1% 2.7% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 EP182026 261004 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.20 113.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.