Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261004 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 114.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.0 19.4 20.2 18.1 16.1 16.4 17.0 18.0 N N N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 32.7 32.7 28.0 25.0 19.4 16.7 14.2 5.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 -2.0 -5.0 5.0 6.0 -6.0 -39.0 -13.0 U U U U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 50.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 40.0 41.0 39.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.2% 2.6% 6.9% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 2.2% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.20 EP182026 261004 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 114.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.