Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    114.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  23.1  20.4  20.1  16.1  16.1  17.5  17.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0   9.0   7.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.0  33.0  30.0  27.2  24.4  20.4  12.0   8.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -6.0   3.0   0.0   3.0 -43.0 -18.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  41.0  40.0  41.0  39.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.94

 EP182026 261005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    114.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.