Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261005 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 51.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.2 18.2 18.9 15.7 16.5 17.7 18.5 21.4 N F N F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 7.0 5.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 38.0 35.0 32.2 29.4 26.7 18.2 15.9 7.8 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 -14.0 -3.0 17.0 4.0 -52.0 -25.0 -28.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 41.0 41.0 40.0 38.0 40.0 39.0 39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.76 EP182026 261005 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.