Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  20.8  18.6  18.5  19.8  18.3  20.3  19.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  37.2  37.2  34.4  30.4  22.0  18.8  12.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0   6.0  16.0  14.0 -16.0 -61.0 -18.0  -9.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  41.0  39.0  41.0  41.0  40.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.5%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.68

 EP182026 261005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.