Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  20.3  17.9  17.2  20.1  17.3  20.9  23.1  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  11.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         32.2  29.4  26.7  26.7  24.2  15.9  13.8  11.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0   5.0  11.0 -20.0 -58.0 -27.0 -16.0 -10.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  39.0  39.0  37.0  38.0  39.0  38.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        1.6%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.44

 EP182026 261005 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.