Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261006 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  18.3  18.2  19.4  19.3  18.2  19.2  23.4  N  F  F  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.4  29.4  26.7  25.4  17.0  15.9  12.7   6.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -18.0 -15.0 -31.0 -12.0   3.0 -28.0 -21.0 VU  U  U VU  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  37.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  37.0  37.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        2.0%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.34

 EP182026 261006 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    117.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.