Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.5  18.5  15.5  19.5  19.3  22.6  26.4  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.4  26.7  25.4  25.4  15.9  13.8  12.7   6.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -19.0 -36.0 -24.0 -22.0   0.0 -26.0 -25.0  U  U VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  34.0  35.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   4.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        0.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.24

 EP182026 261006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    118.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.