Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261006 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 119.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 65.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 45.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 20.3 16.9 18.4 17.2 20.4 23.0 27.6 N N F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 31.7 30.4 30.4 22.0 20.9 12.8 11.8 11.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 -22.0 -32.0 -20.0 1.0 -23.0 -8.0 -25.0 U VU VU VU U VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 35.0 35.0 35.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.6% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.00 EP182026 261006 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 119.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.