Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  21.7  22.6  18.0  20.8  24.5  30.6  38.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.4  34.2  25.9  25.9  23.8  17.8  16.8  12.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -42.0 -36.0 -17.0 -18.0 -27.0 -27.0 -24.0  12.0 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   33.0  32.0  34.0  34.0  35.0  34.0  33.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -1.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.76

 EP182026 261007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.40    120.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.