Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  19.4  17.7  20.8  24.2  29.6  38.9  54.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.0  25.9  23.8  23.8  17.8  17.8  12.4   6.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -15.0 -25.0 -22.0   3.0 -23.0   3.0 -50.0  U  U VU VU  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   32.0  33.0  34.0  34.0  33.0  33.0  32.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  -9.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.0%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.38

 EP182026 261007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.