Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261008 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 122.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 21.0 22.7 22.5 31.6 37.8 51.6 63.0 F N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 28.8 28.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 17.4 11.2 7.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -24.0 -42.0 -19.0 0.0 -41.0 37.0 -22.0 -37.0 VU VU U U VU N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 32.0 32.0 32.0 31.0 31.0 30.0 37.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 -6.0 -8.0 -20.0 N N N N N F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.90 EP182026 261008 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 122.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.