Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    124.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  22.0  26.6  31.3  39.0  51.3  65.6  67.7  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.8  27.8  26.8  26.8  22.4  16.2   8.4  20.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0  18.0  -8.0  -7.0  53.0   0.0  -7.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   31.0  31.0  29.0  31.0  31.0  36.0  43.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   0.0  -6.0  -7.0 -26.0 -50.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.46

 EP182026 261008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    124.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.