Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182026 261009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  29.9  32.0  36.6  49.0  65.0  65.5  44.9  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  13.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.8  36.8  32.4  32.4  29.2  17.8  30.0   8.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0 -26.0  -7.0  30.0   5.0  16.0  33.0 -37.0  U VU  U  N  U  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   29.0  30.0  30.0  31.0  32.0  40.0  55.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -7.0 -32.0 -45.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  F VF VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.20

 EP182026 261009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.